The New Game Board

I was young, with a promising career ahead of me, and had just found the love of my life. While biking through the dreamy little town of Rockport, Maine, I pulled over, took off my (oh so attractive) helmet, and said to my husband, “Someone lives here every single day, all year long. We have to figure this out.”

Well, we never did figure out Rockport. Or Castine. Or Camden, for that matter.

Jobs and careers kept us in the Atlanta metro, where we had a delightful place to raise our family. But the pull of small towns was strong enough for us to move to an area with higher property taxes, simply to be close to a real small town with a heart.

It had a real square. The drag you knew to take when you wanted to see everyone on the first day of spring. The river walk that kept you close to nature. The small shops that had been there for eons. The restaurants where you know the owner’s family.

The premium we paid gave us a solid return. We raised our four children with a heart-of-town community and a calendar full of traditions.

It wasn’t exactly the idyllic coastal village in mid-coast Maine, but it was the best alternative (and a lot warmer!)

Today, however, the game board has changed.

I’ve spent decades in real estate advisory, evaluating markets and helping clients identify investment opportunities. For much of my career, “major market” meant a short list of big cities. Even Charlotte and Tampa were once considered secondary or tertiary markets by many of my clients and employers.

For good reason, back then. The infrastructure, data, and institutional confidence to deploy serious capital were concentrated in the larger established markets.

But consider this. America has roughly 19,500 incorporated cities and towns. Only twelve have more than a million residents. Nearly 96% have fewer than 50,000.

For years, those smaller markets were difficult for serious investors to evaluate. The data was limited, employment was tied to geography, and the value of place rarely found its way into our underwriting.

So much has changed. How we work. Where we choose to live. Where entrepreneurs choose to build businesses.

And I believe our thinking about real estate investment needs to catch up.

Through my real estate advisory, my work is now primarily focused on evaluating small-town markets. We’re looking at the numbers, the real estate fundamentals, unique metrics, the entrepreneurs, and the opportunities others might be overlooking.

We’re finding some fascinating places. And plenty of infill opportunities.

Not every town will be a winner. The economics, new as they may be, still have to work.

I’m looking forward to sharing what we’re learning. The towns behind them. And the metrics worth paying attention to.

Some weeks, a number. Some weeks, a place.

The twelve cities aren’t going anywhere.

They just aren’t the whole map anymore.